The Big 12 might be the most unpredictable major conference in college football. There is no shortage of capable teams, dangerous quarterbacks or programs aggressive enough in the transfer portal to change their outlook almost overnight.
However, one team enters the season with the deepest roster, the most resources and the clearest path back to the Big 12 Championship Game.
Sportsvival has already ranked Texas Tech No. 9 nationally, and the Red Raiders begin the season as our choice to repeat as Big 12 champions. Texas Tech led the conference with seven players selected to the official Preseason All-Big 12 Team, including five defensive players.
Sportsvival’s 2026 Big 12 Rankings
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech finally broke through last season, finishing 12-2, winning the Big 12 Championship and reaching the College Football Playoff. Now the challenge for Joey McGuire is proving that the Red Raiders have become a sustainable national contender rather than a one-year success story.
Quarterback Will Hammond is expected to return after recovering from a torn ACL, while running back Cameron Dickey gives the offense a physical centerpiece. Terrance Carter Jr. remains one of the country’s best tight ends, and Brice Pollock leads an experienced secondary. The defensive front lost significant NFL talent, but Texas Tech attacked the transfer portal again and brought in players such as Trey White, Adam Trick and Austin Romaine.
The Red Raiders also avoid BYU, Utah and Kansas State during the regular season. That schedule, combined with the deepest roster in the conference, makes Texas Tech the clear team to beat.
2. BYU Cougars
BYU has the experience, toughness and defensive talent to make another run at the Big 12 Championship Game. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier returns with Big 12 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, giving the Cougars one of the conference’s most dependable backfields.
The biggest question is whether BYU has improved enough in the trenches to handle Texas Tech in a possible championship rematch. The Cougars lost twice to the Red Raiders last season, but Kalani Sitake’s team should once again be one of the most consistent programs in the conference.
3. Houston Cougars
Willie Fritz has quietly built Houston into a legitimate Big 12 contender. Quarterback Conner Weigman returns to operate an offense featuring running back Makhi Hughes and wide receiver Amare Thomas.
Houston also returns several starters from a defense that made significant progress last season. The Cougars will not receive the attention Texas Tech or BYU receives, but this is a physical and disciplined team capable of reaching the conference championship game.
4. Utah Utes
The Morgan Scalley era begins with expectations remaining high in Salt Lake City. Utah will continue to be built around defense, physical offensive line play and controlling the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Devon Dampier gives the Utes a dangerous running and passing threat. Utah must generate more explosive plays through the air, but the Utes remain one of the few Big 12 teams capable of making every opponent uncomfortable.
5. Kansas State Wildcats
Collin Klein takes over a program that should remain competitive immediately. Quarterback Avery Johnson is one of the conference’s most talented athletes, and Klein understands how to build an offense around Johnson’s running ability and improving passing skills.
The Wildcats must replace several important defensive players and rebuild portions of the offensive line. If those areas come together quickly, Kansas State could climb into the conference’s top three.
6. Arizona Wildcats
Noah Fifita gives Arizona a chance in almost every game. The veteran quarterback enters the season with more than 9,000 career passing yards and was selected as the official Preseason All-Big 12 quarterback.
Arizona quietly won nine games last season and appears to be moving back toward national relevance under Brent Brennan. Road games against BYU, Texas Tech and Kansas State will determine whether the Wildcats are a championship contender or simply a very good bowl team.
7. Arizona State Sun Devils
Kenny Dillingham remains one of the conference’s best young coaches, but Arizona State must replace a large amount of production. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley is expected to take over at quarterback, while Omarion Miller and Reed Harris were added to strengthen the receiving group.
The Sun Devils have enough talent to remain dangerous, but returning only two starters makes them one of the conference’s biggest mysteries.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State could be one of the country’s most improved teams. New head coach Eric Morris brought a large collection of transfers from North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins.
Mestemaker was voted the Big 12 Preseason Newcomer of the Year, and his familiarity with Morris’ offense should help Oklahoma State improve quickly. The Cowboys may be a year away from seriously challenging Texas Tech, but they will not resemble last season’s team.
9. TCU Horned Frogs
Sonny Dykes has consistently produced winning teams at TCU, and the Horned Frogs should once again feature an explosive offense. Harvard transfer Jaden Craig replaces Josh Hoover at quarterback and will be surrounded by enough skill talent to score points.
TCU’s ceiling will be determined by its defense. If the Horned Frogs can become an average or better defensive team, they could push for eight or nine victories.
10. UCF Knights
Scott Frost continues rebuilding the program around a roster filled with new players. Former James Madison quarterback Alonza Barnett III gives UCF an athletic and experienced option to lead the offense.
The Knights should be improved, but a difficult schedule could prevent that improvement from showing up in the final record. Reaching six victories would represent a positive step forward.
11. West Virginia Mountaineers
Rich Rodriguez enters his second season with two important transfer additions in quarterback Michael Hawkins and running back Cam Cook. Cook was selected to the official Preseason All-Big 12 Team and should receive a heavy workload.
West Virginia needs to take advantage of the early portion of its schedule because the final month includes Texas Tech, Houston and Utah. The Mountaineers are capable of reaching a bowl game, but there is little room for error.
12. Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati might have one of the Big 12’s better offensive lines, led by Joe Cotton and Evan Tengesdahl. The concern is at quarterback, where former Georgia Southern passer JC French is attempting to replace a proven starter.
The Bearcats also return only one defensive starter. Scott Satterfield needs immediate production from his transfers or Cincinnati could once again finish outside the postseason.
13. Baylor Bears
Baylor is one of the most difficult teams to predict. Florida transfer DJ Lagway has the natural talent to change the direction of the program, but he must remain healthy and develop consistency as a passer.
The pressure on Dave Aranda is significant. Baylor must reach a bowl game and show progress, or the program could be looking for a new head coach after the season.
14. Kansas Jayhawks
Lance Leipold raised expectations at Kansas, but the Jayhawks have now finished 5-7 in consecutive seasons. Andy Kotelnicki returns to coordinate the offense, which should help Kansas become more creative and productive.
The quarterback competition between Cole Ballard and Isaiah Marshall will determine how far the Jayhawks can climb. A lack of returning starters makes a major turnaround difficult to predict.
15. Colorado Buffaloes
Julian Lewis is talented enough to eventually become one of the Big 12’s better quarterbacks, but asking a young passer to carry the entire offense is unrealistic.
New offensive coordinator Brennan Marion should bring creativity, but Colorado still must prove it can win at the line of scrimmage and play consistent defense. Deion Sanders enters an important season after producing only nine conference victories during his first three years in the Big 12.
16. Iowa State Cyclones
Jimmy Rogers faces one of the most difficult rebuilding projects in the conference. Iowa State returns no starters after Matt Campbell left for Penn State and several important players followed him.
The Cyclones may eventually become competitive under Rogers, but the roster turnover is simply too extensive to expect immediate results.
Sportsvival Preseason First Team All-Big 12
Offense
QB: Noah Fifita, Arizona
RB: LJ Martin, BYU
RB: Cameron Dickey, Texas Tech
WR: Omarion Miller, Arizona State
WR: Amare Thomas, Houston
WR: Wyatt Young, Oklahoma State
TE: Terrance Carter Jr., Texas Tech
OL: Joe Cotton, Cincinnati
OL: Shadre Hurst, Houston
OL: Bruce Mitchell, BYU
OL: John Pastore, Kansas State
OL: Evan Tengesdahl, Cincinnati
Defense
DL: A.J. Holmes Jr., Texas Tech
DL: Adam Trick, Texas Tech
DL: Wendell Gregory, Kansas State
DL: Keanu Tanuvasa, BYU
LB: Ben Roberts, Texas Tech
LB: Austin Romaine, Texas Tech
LB: Cade Uluave, BYU
DB: Brice Pollock, Texas Tech
DB: Will James, Houston
DB: Evan Johnson, BYU
DB: Jamel Johnson, TCU
Special Teams
K: Stone Harrington, Texas Tech
P: Palmer Williams, Baylor
Return Specialist: Mana Carvalho, Utah
Texas Tech led the official preseason conference selections with seven players, BYU followed with six and Houston had three.
Sportsvival Big 12 Championship Prediction
Texas Tech 34, BYU 27
BYU should make the Red Raiders work much harder than it did during their two meetings last season. LJ Martin and the Cougars’ physical defense will keep the game close into the second half.
However, Texas Tech has too much depth.
The Red Raiders can run the football with Cameron Dickey, create matchup problems with Terrance Carter Jr. and generate pressure from several positions on defense. Will Hammond does not need to carry the team. He simply needs to protect the football, make timely throws and allow the talent around him to take control.
Texas Tech wins its second consecutive Big 12 Championship and returns to the College Football Playoff.
Final Thoughts
The Big 12 remains a conference where one difficult road game can completely change the standings. Texas Tech is the favorite, but BYU, Houston and Utah are legitimate threats. Kansas State, Arizona, Arizona State, Oklahoma State and TCU are all capable of beating one of the top contenders on the right Saturday.
Texas Tech will face more pressure than it did last season. Every opponent now views the Red Raiders as the biggest game on the schedule. They also must replace several players selected in the NFL Draft and trust a quarterback returning from a major knee injury.
Still, no other Big 12 program combines Texas Tech’s roster depth, financial commitment, transfer-portal success and favorable conference schedule.
Sportsvival is riding with the Red Raiders.