Sportsvival is scouting the top prospects from the 2026 NBA Draft and Illinois guard Keaton Wagler has emerged as a high‑upside, NBA‑ready combo guard: a 6'6" wing with size, shooting, and secondary playmaking who projects as a first‑round target if he sustains efficiency and tightens his on‑ball defense. Scouts will be watching his three‑point consistency, turnover control, and defensive discipline as the season progresses.
Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois, 6’6”, 185 lbs
Past Accomplishments High School
Team success: Led Shawnee Mission Northwest (Shawnee, KS) to back‑to‑back Kansas Class 6A state championships (2024, 2025) and helped the program compile a combined 47–3 record over his final two seasons; finished his high‑school career 80–16 as a starter, setting the program record for wins.
Senior season: Averaged 18.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.4 APG while shooting 58.5% FG, 44.8% 3P, 83.0% FT and earned statewide recognition.
Career totals and highlights: 1,105 points, 464 rebounds, 272 assists, 100 steals; career high 32 points in a marquee outing vs Chaminade.
Background and Recruit Profile
Born: February 3, 2007. Birthplace: Shawnee, Kansas.
Recruitment and decision: A consensus four‑star prospect in the 2025 class, Wagler drew Power‑5 interest and committed to Illinois for a role that would let him play off the ball, space the floor, and develop as a two‑way wing.
Skill set entering college: Arrived as a polished scorer with deep range, off‑ball instincts, and the size to defend multiple perimeter positions.
Physical Profile and Measurables
Height Position: 6 ft 6 in; combo guard (PG/SG).
Frame and athletic traits: Lean, wing‑sized frame with the length to defend multiple perimeter positions; fluid mover with the ability to rise and shoot from distance and finish in transition.
College Career and Production (as of Feb 11, 2026)
Role: Primary perimeter scorer and secondary creator for Illinois; operates as a wing who can handle late‑clock duties, space the floor, and create for teammates.
Season averages (through Feb 11, 2026): 18.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.3 APG, 46.4% FG, 43.7% 3P, 80.0% FT, 1.7 TO per game across 25 games.
Notable performances: Included a 39‑point, 10‑assist game vs Ohio State and a 46‑point outburst in Illinois’ upset at Purdue — performances that vaulted him into national conversation.
Strengths
Scoring and range: Natural scorer with a quick release and proven three‑point touch; can create off the dribble and spot up off screens.
Size and versatility: At 6'6", he can defend multiple perimeter positions and attack smaller defenders; length helps on closeouts and rebounding.
Playmaking upside: Shows advanced feel for reads and the ability to generate assists when defenses over‑help; capable of initiating offense in secondary actions.
Poise in big moments: Has shown the ability to take and make late‑clock shots and to sustain scoring bursts in high‑pressure games.
Weaknesses
Defensive refinement: Needs more consistent on‑ball fundamentals, pick‑and‑roll coverage, and effort to become a reliable two‑way pro.
Shot selection under pressure: Efficiency can dip on contested or late‑clock isolation attempts; maintaining discipline will be key for NBA spacing.
Turnover management: Aggressive creation sometimes leads to turnovers; better pace control and decision making will raise his pro floor.
Player Profile and Projection
Draft projection: Late‑lottery to mid‑first round if Wagler sustains shooting efficiency and improves defense; otherwise a secure early‑first round pick with starter upside in the right system.
Role projection: Day‑1 rotation wing who can space the floor, provide secondary playmaking, and score in bunches; with defensive refinement and steadier turnover control, projects as a two‑way starter in a playoff rotation.
Ceiling and floor: Ceiling: A multi‑positional starting wing who spaces the floor, creates for others, and defends multiple matchups. Floor: High‑impact rotation scorer and secondary playmaker who starts in favorable matchups but needs defensive consistency to stick as a full‑time starter.
Pro Comparison
Keaton Wagler projects as a Donte DiVincenzo‑type wing: a high‑motor, floor‑spacing scorer who can also serve as a secondary creator and defensive glue piece. Like DiVincenzo, Wagler brings a quick release, the ability to heat up from beyond the arc, and the toughness to defend multiple perimeter matchups; both thrive in roles that value movement, catch‑and‑shoot efficiency, and opportunistic transition scoring. Wagler differs in that he carries more natural size (6'6") and a slightly larger primary scoring role in college, which gives him the upside to slide into a full‑time starting job if his playmaking and on‑ball defense continue to develop. The decisive levers that separate a DiVincenzo‑style rotation player from a higher‑value starter for Wagler are sustained three‑point efficiency, tighter turnover control, and consistent pick‑and‑roll/closeout defense; if he improves those areas, the DiVincenzo comp becomes conservative and Wagler could evolve into a multi‑positional starting wing with primary late‑clock duties.
Sportsvival View
Sportsvival views Keaton Wagler as one of the 2026 class’s most intriguing freshman wings: his high‑school winning pedigree, size, and scoring instincts create meaningful upside and an already‑translatable NBA skill set. The two decisive levers for his draft stock are sustained three‑point efficiency and defensive consistency; improvements in those areas could push him into the lottery and cement him as a long‑term starter, while stagnation still leaves him a valuable first‑round rotation piece with immediate pro translation. Scouts will be watching his shot selection, assist/turnover trends, and on‑ball defense as the season closes.
(photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated)